日本經濟衰退對世界的意義

Justin Lai譯述文集

What Japan’s recession Means for the World- 日本經濟衰退對世界的意義

In a surprise, Japan said its economy, the world’s 3rd-biggest following the U.S. and China, contracted 1.6 percent at an annual pace in the July-September quarter as consumer and corporate spending failed to regain momentum after a sales tax increase in April.

令人吃驚地，在七月到九月份的一季，日本說位居世界第三大經濟體(僅次美國與中國) 的日本經濟每年速度萎縮了1.6%，因為消費者與公司支出在經過四月的營業稅增加之後，未能重獲動力。

Here are some implications for the global economy and for Japan following the unexpectedly dismal GDP (Gross Domestic Product-國民生產毛額)report:

以是一些接在意外的蕭瑟的GDP報告之後，對全球與日本經濟的暗示。

CLOUDED OUTLOOK: A recession is generally regarded as two straight quarters of economic contraction, and Japan’s economy shrank 7.1 percent in the April-June quarter, immediately following the sales tax hike. The slump comes as China’s growth is slowing and Europe’s economy is limping along. It could drag on Asia’s growth if Japanese businesses hold back on investing abroad and companies and consumers buy fewer imports. The drop also adds to uncertainties in world financial markets.

陰暗的預測：一個經濟衰退通常被認為是連續兩季的經濟萎縮，而在4-6月的一季日本經濟萎縮7.1%。這個消沈出現在中國成長緩慢下來，與歐洲經濟一路軟弱無力地行進時。這個衰退可能拖累亞洲的成長，如果日本生意在外國投資裹足不前，而消費者購買更少進口商品。此項縮減也會增加全球財政的不確定性。

WHAT’S NEXT: Prime Minister Shinzo Abe will likely delay another sales tax hike planned for October 2015, and use the miserable GDP reading as a reason for calling snap elections, possibly as early as next month, to try to shore up sagging public support for his government.

下一步：安倍晉三首相將可能延後，另一計劃在2015年實施的高營業稅，並且利用痛苦的國民生產毛額數字讀據，作為一項理由來解釋可能下個月要舉行的臨時選舉，來支撐群眾對他逐漸下跌的支持。

BIGGER PROBLEMS: Japan’s population is shrinking and aging, creating a smaller domestic market and placing heavier tax burdens on younger wage-earners. Apart from its automakers, Japan’s many manufacturers have lost their innovative edge and have been shifting production offshore. Household incomes peaked more than a decade ago, and a growing share of workers struggle to make ends meet on part-time, contract work.

更大的難題：日本人口正逐漸萎縮、老化，造成更小的國內市場，對年輕一點的薪水階級有更重的稅捐負擔。除了汽車業以外，日本的許多製造廠商已失去創新精神，並且已將生產線向海外移。家庭收入比十年前高，靠兼差工作努力使收支相抵的工人也逐漸增加。

TINKERING WITH TAXES: After many years of deficit spending, Japan needs tax increases to get its battered government finances into better shape and cut its total public debt, which is more than twice the size of the economy and the largest among developed nations. A delay in the tax hike will slow that process.

難補的稅負問題：而把高稅負延後可使那道過程緩慢下來。

EXTRA STIMULUS: Abe is hoping that his “Abenomics” policies of lax monetary policy, fiscal spending and structural economic reforms will eventually get growth back on track. Analysts also expect him to announce a package worth about 3 trillion yen to 4 trillion yen ($26 billion to $35 billion) in extra spending on subsidies to low-income families, help for small and medium-sized companies and other measures meant to boost consumer spending and business investment.

額外的刺激力道：安倍正希望，他的所謂『安倍經濟』政策，包括寬鬆的貨幣政策、財政支出與結構性的經濟改革，終於會使國家的成長恢復到正軌上來。分析家們也期待他宣佈一套值3至4兆日元(美金260至350億元) ，對低收入家庭補助津貼的額外支出，也期待他幫助中小企業與，意謂要刺激消費者的支出與企業投資的其他一些措施，。

UPWARD REVISION? Since Monday’s data is preliminary, with a revision due Dec. 8, things may not be as bad as the initial GDP reading suggests. Rising orders for machinery and other industrial equipment could lead to higher manufacturing output in coming months.

向上修正? 因為星期一的資料是初期的，12月8日會有修正案出爐，因此情況不會如早期的GDP判讀所顯示那麼糟糕。在未來幾個月，逐漸增加的機器與工業設備的訂單，可能導致更高的製造業出口。

IN THE LONG RUN: Abe has promised drastic reforms of labor regulations, the tax system and the health industry, among other areas, to help improve Japan’s competitiveness. But so far he’s made little headway, while most companies have not passed on windfall gains from stock price increases and surging profits to their workers in the form of higher wages. If Abe dissolves the parliament this week for a general election in mid-December, work on some of those initiatives will be tabled, slowing progress still further.

終究：安倍已經承諾積極的改造勞工法、稅務、與尤其是衛生工業，以便改善日本的競爭力。然而迄今他的進展不大，而大部分公司尚未渡過，從股價的增加而獲得的意外收益，與對他們員工有高漲的利潤-高薪資。若安倍本周因12月中旬的大選而解散國會，有關那些創新的策略的工作將會被擱置，也因而更進一步拖慢進展。(安倍領導的自民黨已的12/15選舉勝選)

譯自財經雜誌

12/10/2014